Category Archives: Stats

Ideas that add up #60

During WWII, Hungarian-born mathematician Abraham Wald undertook a study with the British Air Ministry to use statistical analysis to help protect bombers flying over enemy territory. The data to be crunched included the number and location of bullet holes on … Continue reading

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Ideas that add up #59

Bayesian Thinking (based on Bayes Theorem) can provide unintuitive insights in a wide variety of situations. As a medical example, consider some rare horrible disease (SRHD), which strikes one person in a hundred independent of ethnicity, geographical area, or socioeconomic … Continue reading

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Ideas that add up #30

People often think that the best way to predict the future is by collecting as much data as possible before making a decision. But this is like driving a car looking only at the rear-view mirror — because data is … Continue reading

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Ideas that add up #28

…Bayes theorem is an important reality check on our efforts to forecast the future. How, for instance, should we reconcile a large body of theory and evidence predicting global warming with the fact that there has been no warming trend … Continue reading

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